Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe72e…c780 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$646 (+9%) realized +$588 · open +$58
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$137
other 33% +$410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 39% -0.2%
≤30d 31 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 39% -0.2%
≤90d 31 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 39% -0.2%
all 31 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 39% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 39% -0.2%
10% -23.5% 26% -9.7%
15% -30.9% 19% -18.4%
20% -37.7% 13% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$71 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized+$588
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 48¢ $314 $355 +$41 (+13%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 10¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $305 +$214 +70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$10 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 −$19 -9%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$459 +46%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $152 −$24 -16%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$151 +148%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 −$198 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 +$55 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $306 −$27 -9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$37 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $304 +$48 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$9 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $304 −$12 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $509 −$250 -49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $204 −$126 -62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $206 −$66 -32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 +$100 +33%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $368 +$292 +79%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$7 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$12 +12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 −$13 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$97 -95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $253 −$250 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $102 +$7 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$6 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $356 +$124 +35%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 4m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $14 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $305 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 75¢ $519 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $8 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $39 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $305 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $20 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $26 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $0 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $154 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 51¢ $30 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,469 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 52¢ $203 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $253 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No $2 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $102 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $203 24h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 20¢ $28 25h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 25h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 65¢ $100 25h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 58¢ $359 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $278 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $139 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.31 · official $530.53 · 87 history records