Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe72d…e3fc other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-6%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$31
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$52
sports 19% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 56% -13.4%
≤30d 19 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 58% -12.9%
≤90d 19 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 58% -12.9%
all 19 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 58% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 58% -12.9%
10% -16.5% 37% -21.3%
15% -24.6% 37% -28.9%
20% -32.0% 21% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage8d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $96 +$7 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $70 +$11 +15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$9 -27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$17 +162%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $42 +$20 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $133 −$91 -68%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$5 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$9 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$15 -54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 75¢ $57 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 12h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $81 33h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $40 33h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 35h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $42 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $42 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $107 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records