Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe72c…8979 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% $0
other 25% $0
economics 8% +$1
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 38 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -27.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -34.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -40.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×15.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.48 per $1 lost it wins $13.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage565d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Jun 25 $41 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Dec 29 $41 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 23? Oct 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 October 13-19? Oct 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on October 12? Oct 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5? Oct 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? Oct 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on September 12? Sep 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Feb 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 14 $0 $0 -7%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -50%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -50%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -50%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -50%
Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -50%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -33%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -14%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -33%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -25%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -25%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -10%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $41 150d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $41 178d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 BUY No 100¢ $41 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 239d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 245d
Will Solana reach $260 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $40 250d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on October 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 256d
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5? BUY No 100¢ $40 266d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? BUY No 100¢ $40 270d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on September 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 285d
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 500d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 520d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY No 100¢ $13 520d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 520d
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 557d
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 557d
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 564d
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 565d
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 565d
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 565d
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 565d
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 565d
Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 565d
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 565d
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 565d
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 565d
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 565d
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 565d
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 565d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.94 · official $40.94 (match) · 78 history records