Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E7 0xe72b…3c9c sports 772 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10,020 (+1%) realized +$10,042 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate26%181W / 505L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,034per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Fees−$2,889est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$135,835
sports 32% −$206,036
other 5% −$35,831
politics 5% −$186
crypto 5% −$169
weather 1% −$1,975
culture 1% −$4,892
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +240.5% +208.1% 83% 33% -8.0%
≤30d 301 +53.4% +38.8% 44% 24% -81.9%
≤90d 686 -18.4% -26.2% 26% 16% -91.3%
all 686 -18.4% -26.2% 26% 16% -91.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 16% -91.3%
10% -33.3% 15% -92.1%
15% ← realistic here -39.7% 13% -92.9%
20% -45.6% 11% -93.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -73% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$781 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$10,042
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses181 / 505
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$2,889
Open positions19
Markets (closed)686 / 772
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$1,034
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 44¢ 98¢ $50 $112 +$62 (+123%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 99¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+65%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 27¢ 19¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 84¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $21 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? No 69¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 12¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21? No 87¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? No 12¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? No 71¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 21 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $93 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 18 $15 +$4 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $76 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 16 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $178 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $320 −$5 -2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $202 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$15 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $148 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $111 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $87 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 100¢ $45 31m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 100¢ $455 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 2¢ $16 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 2¢ $21 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 2¢ $21 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 2¢ $20 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 2¢ $22 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $3,044 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $8,757 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $40 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 98¢ $776 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 20¢ $188 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 99¢ $110 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 40¢ $53 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 37¢ $1,138 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 37¢ $1,138 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 10¢ $86 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 63¢ $508 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $958 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,153 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 80¢ $403 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $88 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $1,821 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $62 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $508 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.96 · official $157.72 · 3500 history records