trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 75% | 25% | -4.8% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +7.2% | -3.0% | 64% | 29% | -4.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 60% | 27% | -5.2% |
| all | 17 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 65% | 24% | -5.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 24% | -5.3% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 24% | -14.3% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 12% | -22.6% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 6% | -30.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $101 | $100 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $48 | $34 | −$14 (-30%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 19 | $46 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Jun 15 | $27 | +$6 | +24% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Jun 12 | $21 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$1 | -71% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $32 | +$3 | +10% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $42 | +$1 | +2% |
| New York Yankees vs. Athletics | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +48% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | May 31 | $2 | +$1 | +26% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | May 31 | $2 | +$1 | +67% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 08 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? | Feb 28 | $2 | $0 | +4% |