Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe724…7b22 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$25 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$41
weather 4% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.9% -42.9% 0% 0% -23.8%
≤30d 5 -36.9% -42.9% 0% 0% -23.8%
≤90d 5 -36.9% -42.9% 0% 0% -23.8%
all 5 -36.9% -42.9% 0% 0% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 0% -23.8%
10% -48.3% 0% -31.1%
15% -53.3% 0% -37.7%
20% -57.9% 0% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$13 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $600 $603 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $182 −$43 -24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $183 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$6 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$13 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $137 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 54¢ $139 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $182 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $182 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $183 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $471 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $602.71 · official $602.71 (match) · 12 history records