Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe723…8104 other 16 markets active 19h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-6%) realized −$70 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$942now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$9
sports 6% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -44.4% -49.7% 43% 43% -71.9%
≤30d 7 -44.4% -49.7% 43% 43% -71.9%
≤90d 7 -44.4% -49.7% 43% 43% -71.9%
all 7 -44.4% -49.7% 43% 43% -71.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.7% 43% -71.9%
10% ← realistic here -54.5% 14% -74.6%
15% -58.9% 14% -77.1%
20% -63.0% 0% -79.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$942
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)7 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $481 $490 +$9 (+2%)
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 76¢ 77¢ $152 $154 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $123 $127 +$4 (+3%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $93 $84 −$8 (-9%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $8 18h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $1 21h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $150 25h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 25h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 32¢ $2 25h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $3 25h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 16¢ $1 25h
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $4 25h
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 27h
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 27h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 27h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 27h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $334 27h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $66 27h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 15¢ $3 27h
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $14 27h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $41 27h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $17 27h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $82 27h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 27h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $61 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $941.65 · official $941.65 (match) · 24 history records