Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe723…831c sports 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,519 (-1%) realized −$1,518 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate87%308W / 47L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$121
14 days−$333
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,199
weather 15% −$354
crypto 12% −$41
other 1% +$40
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +1.4% -8.2% 97% 3% -8.4%
≤30d 55 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 2% -11.4%
≤90d 128 -2.1% -11.5% 91% 1% -11.3%
all 355 -2.4% -11.7% 87% 21% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 21% -10.8%
10% -20.1% 9% -19.4%
15% -27.9% 3% -27.2%
20% -34.9% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$90 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$547
Realized−$1,518
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses308 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)355 / 357
History coverage115d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? No 98¢ 98¢ $303 $302 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? No 98¢ 98¢ $246 $245 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 28 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $337 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $37 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $491 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $863 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $495 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $28 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 26 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $154 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? Jun 26 $494 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25? Jun 26 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25? Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $202 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $242 −$23 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 25 $990 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $128 +$23 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $498 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $409 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $197 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 23 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? Jun 23 $287 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $496 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 22 $677 +$23 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? Jun 22 $677 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $97 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $136 −$136 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $701 +$46 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 20? Jun 20 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $637 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $153 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,143 +$24 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 20 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $288 −$198 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 20 $205 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $442 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $771 −$244 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 19? Jun 20 $187 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $150 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $498 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $82 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $409 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $101 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $61 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $237 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $26 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 39h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 39h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 95¢ $28 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $98 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $198 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.10 · official $547.22 (match) · 1771 history records