Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe721…9e57 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%18W / 35L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
politics 26% $0
crypto 8% $0
other 7% $0
sports 6% −$1
finance 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 54% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 54% 8% -9.2%
all 53 +1.7% -8.0% 34% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -9.4%
10% -16.8% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.8% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses18 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage279d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $77 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $39 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $72 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $4 +$1 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $35 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $1 $0 +50%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +29%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $13 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 22 $5 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $3 $0 -10%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 30h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $26 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $40 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.22 · official $40.22 (match) · 203 history records