Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe721…0020 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$54 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$135
other 48% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 33% -5.0%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 33% -5.0%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 33% -5.0%
all 3 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 33% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 33% -5.0%
10% -18.3% 33% -14.1%
15% -26.2% 33% -22.4%
20% -33.4% 33% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$40 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 90¢ $50 $97 +$47 (+95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$37 -72%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$88 +171%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $45 −$44 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 10m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $139 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $45 14h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.28 · official $97.28 (match) · 6 history records