Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E7 0xe71d…d79f other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,020 (-1%) realized −$1,020 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%21W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,358per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$52
30 days−$1,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$155
politics 38% −$71
sports 11% −$1,123
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% −$3
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -9.7% -18.3% 8% 3% -12.6%
≤90d 97 -10.5% -19.0% 6% 3% -10.7%
all 136 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 12% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 11% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 10% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,749) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$19 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$752
Realized−$1,020
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses21 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,358
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $752 $752 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,061 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,222 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $877 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $625 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 14 $251 +$3 +1%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,271 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,809 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,279 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $882 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $841 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $63 +$33 +52%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $870 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $65 −$65 -100%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $294 +$1 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $4,993 −$6 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $300 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $5,619 −$6 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $354 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $290 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $304 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $235 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $424 −$1 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 21 $1,059 −$1,059 -100%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,164 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3,290 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $1,680 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $1,493 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,637 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $4,116 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $4,399 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,895 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $752 59m
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $780 38h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $780 40h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $877 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $878 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $875 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $877 2d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $878 3d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $879 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $624 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $625 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $251 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $879 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $880 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $780 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $781 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $744 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $745 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $721 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $722 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $880 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $881 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $880 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $882 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $872 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $873 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $634 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $635 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $693 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $694 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.61 · official $751.61 (match) · 435 history records