Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe71c…4987 sports 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$214 (+90%) realized +$202 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%20W / 45L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$178
other 17% +$35
world 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +65.7% +49.9% 31% 31% +42.7%
≤30d 65 +65.7% +49.9% 31% 31% +42.7%
≤90d 65 +65.7% +49.9% 31% 31% +42.7%
all 65 +65.7% +49.9% 31% 31% +42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.9% 31% +42.7%
10% ← realistic here +35.6% 31% +29.0%
15% +22.5% 31% +16.6%
20% +10.5% 26% +5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +118% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +87% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×6.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses20 / 45
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions18
Markets (closed)65 / 83
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 54¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+22%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 82¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 4¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 48¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists Yes 20¢ 98¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+390%)
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ assists Yes 17¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Yes 38¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+162%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Yes 33¢ 61¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 11¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots Yes 30¢ 49¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 +$10 +138%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $2 +$10 +510%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$41 +3948%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -76%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -85%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -87%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 +$76 +7371%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $16 21m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 55m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 1h
Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2h
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ assists BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $8 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.33 · official $79.38 · 152 history records