Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe718…1e2b weather 355 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate76%267W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$4
14 days−$18
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% −$39
crypto 34% −$16
other 9% −$16
sports 9% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +1.6% -8.1% 97% 7% -9.2%
≤30d 352 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 19% -11.1%
≤90d 352 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 19% -11.1%
all 352 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 19% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 19% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 7% -19.6%
15% -26.8% 3% -27.3%
20% -34.0% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses267 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)352 / 355
History coverage18d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $100 +$10 +10%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 +$2 +9%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $80 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $80 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $40 +$5 +13%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $50 +$3 +5%
Ghana to win the second half? Jun 23 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $26 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $36 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $40 26h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $40 31h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $25 33h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $25 33h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $25 33h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $10 33h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $20 33h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $40 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $40 47h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $40 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $40 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $25 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $50 2d
Ghana to win the second half? BUY No 95¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.06 · official $148.06 (match) · 993 history records