Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe717…0424 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.7% -5.3% 73% 60% -9.5%
≤30d 35 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 60% -15.4%
≤90d 35 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 60% -15.4%
all 35 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 60% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 60% -15.4%
10% -20.0% 43% -23.5%
15% -27.7% 31% -30.9%
20% -34.8% 23% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$21 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage20d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $51 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$7 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 01 $20 +$4 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$4 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $20 +$16 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $21 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 31 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 31 $21 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 31 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 31 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 31 $20 +$14 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $62 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $13 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records