Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe716…c48f crypto 338 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+2%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%213W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day126.8pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$29
other 17% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 -0.9% -10.4% 63% 38% -8.6%
≤30d 337 -0.9% -10.4% 63% 38% -8.6%
≤90d 337 -0.9% -10.4% 63% 38% -8.6%
all 337 -0.9% -10.4% 63% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 38% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 29% -17.3%
15% -26.8% 21% -25.3%
20% -34.0% 18% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses213 / 124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)337 / 338
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day126.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$10 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$11 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$9 -62%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$2 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$14 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -55%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$19 +95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$16 -77%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$26 -86%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$91 +490%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +91%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $22 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $19 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $14 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $15 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $17 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $26 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.48 · official $19.80 (match) · 909 history records