Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe711…5147 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,928 (-15%) realized −$1,314 · open −$614
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,792per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$3,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$868
7 days−$868
14 days−$1,594
30 days−$1,594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$1,682
sports 2% −$294
crypto 2% −$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-86.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -77.1% -79.3% 0% 0% -26.1%
≤30d 6 -84.7% -86.2% 0% 0% -36.0%
≤90d 6 -84.7% -86.2% 0% 0% -36.0%
all 6 -84.7% -86.2% 0% 0% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.2% 0% -36.0%
10% -87.5% 0% -42.1%
15% -88.7% 0% -47.7%
20% -89.8% 0% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$266 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$3,482
Realized−$1,314
Unrealized−$614
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1,792
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $4,096 $3,482 −$614 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $228 −$223 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $201 −$196 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $4,207 −$350 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $503 −$494 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $236 −$232 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $102 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $228 4h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 11h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $769 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,355 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $250 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $254 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $254 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $254 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $236 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $240 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $510 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $172 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3,025 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2,915 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $676 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $979 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $220 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $183 20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,149 36d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,964 36d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,077 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,482.50 · official $3,482.50 (match) · 60 history records