Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E7 0xe70d…dd35 crypto 1460 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26,922 (-13%) realized −$26,406 · open −$516
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate86%1261W / 197L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day44.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$419
sports 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 325 +0.5% -9.1% 91% 17% -8.9%
≤30d 1012 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 22% -9.0%
≤90d 1458 +0.6% -8.9% 86% 23% -9.1%
all 1458 +0.6% -8.9% 86% 23% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 23% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 11% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 6% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$36 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26,406
Unrealized−$516
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1261 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1458 / 1460
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$138
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $217 −$33 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $181 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $360 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $341 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $321 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $452 −$88 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $183 +$57 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $252 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$185 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $381 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $362 +$27 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $361 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $350 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $350 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $341 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $387 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $321 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $662 +$24 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $331 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$13 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $602 +$25 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $585 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$56 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $556 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $608 −$532 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $540 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $540 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $521 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $260 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $314 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $540 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $502 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $480 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $483 +$41 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $230 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $470 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $231 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $221 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $671 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $222 +$28 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $455 +$22 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $180 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $37 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $181 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $360 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $341 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $321 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $90 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $181 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $81 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $181 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $183 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $131 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $252 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $207 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $361 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $361 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $350 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $350 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $341 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $321 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.28 (match) · 3500 history records