Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E7 0xe70c…1512 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$28 (+19%) realized +$20 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-15.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-6.6%	-15.5%	33%	33%	-5.7%
≤30d	3	-6.6%	-15.5%	33%	33%	-5.7%
≤90d	3	-6.6%	-15.5%	33%	33%	-5.7%
all	3	-6.6%	-15.5%	33%	33%	-5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.5%	33%	-5.7%
10%	-23.6%	33%	-14.7%
15%	-31.0%	33%	-23.0%
20%	-37.7%	33%	-30.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$12 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	Dplus KIA Challengers	44¢	58¢	$25	$33	+$8 (+33%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	Nongshim Esports Academy	41¢	40¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season	Gen.G Global Academy	42¢	40¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$31	−$22	-71%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	Jun 17	$30	−$2	-5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$50	+$28	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo	BUY Nongshim Esports Academy	41¢	$5	50m
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg	BUY Gen.G Global Academy	42¢	$5	51m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	44¢	$25	58m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$6	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$3	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$31	1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	SELL San Francisco Giants	46¢	$29	1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	BUY San Francisco Giants	47¢	$30	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$78	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$38	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$12	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.00 · official $43.00 (match) · 11 history records