Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E7 0xe70c…dc4c other 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$999 (+1%) realized +$999 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%22W / 131L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,208per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$187
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$89
politics 38% −$87
sports 12% +$1,137
economics 4% −$4
culture 3% −$6
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% −$2
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -11.5% -20.0% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 99 -15.2% -23.3% 5% 2% -9.3%
all 153 -3.3% -12.5% 14% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 10% -9.1%
10% -20.9% 10% -17.8%
15% -28.5% 9% -25.7%
20% -35.5% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,570) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$9 · ×10.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$1,227
Realized+$999
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses22 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,208
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $848 $848 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $378 $379 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,594 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,489 −$4 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,855 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,137 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,264 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,914 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,566 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,448 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,535 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $395 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $735 +$1 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,907 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $634 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,221 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $3,646 −$5 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $1,696 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,497 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $4,850 −$7 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,421 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,789 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $2,731 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $848 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,202 42h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,203 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,031 45h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,189 45h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,191 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,012 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,013 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $982 3d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $984 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $378 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,135 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,137 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,229 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,231 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $617 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $618 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,543 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,545 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,071 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,307 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,309 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,564 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,566 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $84 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,337 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,226.68 · official $1,226.49 (match) · 468 history records