Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E7 0xe709…fce7 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$6 (-25%) realized −$6 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-79.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-77.2%	-79.4%	0%	0%	-76.7%
≤30d	4	-77.2%	-79.4%	0%	0%	-76.7%
≤90d	4	-77.2%	-79.4%	0%	0%	-76.7%
all	4	-77.2%	-79.4%	0%	0%	-76.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-79.4%	0%	-76.7%
10%	-81.4%	0%	-78.9%
15%	-83.2%	0%	-81.0%
20%	-84.8%	0%	-82.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -74% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -77% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$2 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$16

Realized−$6

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Open positions5

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	92¢	92¢	$8	$8	−$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	52¢	76¢	$2	$3	+$1 (+45%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$2	−$1	-30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$8	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$2	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$2	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$2	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	6¢	$0	6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2	26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$2	26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$2	26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.46 · official $16.46 (match) · 11 history records