Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe709…54db crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+8%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$8
other 8% $0
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +13.4% +2.6% 49% 44% +1.5%
≤30d 43 +13.4% +2.6% 49% 44% +1.5%
≤90d 43 +13.4% +2.6% 49% 44% +1.5%
all 43 +13.4% +2.6% 49% 44% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 44% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.2% 42% -8.2%
15% -16.2% 35% -17.1%
20% -24.4% 35% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$6 +535%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +218%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records