Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe708…c3aa sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$507 (-2%) realized −$507 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$463est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,906
7 days−$6,168
14 days−$1,122
30 days−$1,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$471
other 28% −$1,948
crypto 5% −$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -56.3% -60.4% 17% 17% -56.4%
≤30d 41 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 24% -16.8%
≤90d 41 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 24% -16.8%
all 41 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 24% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 24% -16.8%
10% -40.7% 24% -24.8%
15% -46.4% 22% -32.0%
20% -51.7% 22% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$565) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$661 vs −$308 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$507
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$463
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage16d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $195 −$178 -91%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $923 −$388 -42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $510 +$391 +77%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $500 +$281 +56%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -96%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $92 −$90 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $206 −$197 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $618 −$559 -90%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $565 +$285 +50%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 19 $902 −$611 -68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $288 −$288 -100%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 19 $391 −$391 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,067 −$3,067 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $463 −$463 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $599 +$187 +31%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $378 −$61 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $513 −$473 -92%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $260 +$592 +228%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $301 −$41 -14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $350 −$337 -96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$54 -88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $85 −$74 -87%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,062 +$2,068 +68%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,108 +$26 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $539 +$2,200 +408%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,327 −$494 -37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,300 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $669 +$674 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $206 +$404 +196%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 +$168 +166%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $76 −$74 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $178 −$172 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $106 −$100 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 3¢ $17 21m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 9¢ $535 25m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $195 59m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $923 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 62¢ $901 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $510 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $781 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $500 11h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $7 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $92 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 0¢ $9 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 2¢ $206 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $58 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $618 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $850 33h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $565 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 15¢ $205 34h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 75¢ $786 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $599 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $317 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $378 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $40 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $513 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $851 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $260 2d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) SELL Czechia 19¢ $259 2d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 21¢ $301 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $70 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records