Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:55:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E7 0xe707…e0cf crypto 966 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$233 (-1%) realized −$233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%475W / 572L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day55.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$771
7 days−$639
14 days−$722
30 days−$953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$554
sports 7% −$141
other 5% +$96
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -66.7% -69.9% 17% 17% -49.6%
≤30d 292 -36.8% -42.8% 36% 19% -26.8%
≤90d 1047 -7.9% -16.6% 45% 32% -16.7%
all 1047 -7.9% -16.6% 45% 32% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 32% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 26% -24.6%
15% -31.9% 21% -31.9%
20% -38.6% 17% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized−$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses475 / 572
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1047 / 966
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day55.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1047 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $46 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ 66¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+6%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 55¢ 64¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Baltimore Orioles 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ 57¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 54¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox 55¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 54¢ 55¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 53¢ 54¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Madrid Open: Daria Snigur vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 61¢ $12 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $11 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $11 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $13 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $42 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $29 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 13h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $12 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $11 13h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $12 13h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $11 13h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $11 13h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $11 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 26h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $7 36h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $6 37h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $7 37h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $6 37h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $6 37h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $6 37h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $6 37h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $5 37h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.60 · official $434.60 (match) · 3500 history records