Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe706…0367 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate15%6W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$2
world 25% −$1
politics 9% −$2
crypto 7% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 8% 0% -10.0%
all 40 -0.9% -10.3% 15% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses6 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage257d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $16 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $64 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -24%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $13 $0 -1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $15 +$2 +15%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $13 −$3 -20%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Washington vs. UCLA Nov 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Oct 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $19 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $16 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $44 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $19 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $19 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $52 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $52 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.00 · official $51.67 (match) · 176 history records