Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe704…f80e sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%60W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$8
other 47% −$8
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -1.5% -10.9% 61% 57% -10.9%
≤30d 95 -1.5% -10.9% 63% 59% -9.0%
≤90d 97 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 58% -9.5%
all 97 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 58% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 58% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 43% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 32% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 15% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses60 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)97 / 104
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 79¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -65%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -92%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 −$2 -80%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 0 Thailand? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +15%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +188%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -92%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: China PR 0 - 0 Thailand? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +108%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 $0 -44%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 $0 +48%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1 $0 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $1 6h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 46¢ $1 10h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 11h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $2 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $1 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador BUY 40¢ $1 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 86¢ $1 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 13h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $1 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 24h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $2 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 31h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 31h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 31h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 32h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 32h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.07 · official $10.07 (match) · 228 history records