Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe703…af4e world 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$567 (+18%) realized +$567 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%29W / 59L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$13
14 days+$494
30 days+$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$111
economics 16% −$31
politics 11% +$54
crypto 10% +$501
other 10% −$63
sports 1% −$39
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -79.7% -81.7% 7% 7% -73.4%
≤30d 46 -38.2% -44.1% 24% 22% +23.5%
≤90d 85 -8.6% -17.3% 31% 27% +13.6%
all 88 -6.9% -15.8% 33% 28% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 28% +13.6%
10% -23.8% 26% +2.7%
15% -31.2% 17% -7.2%
20% -37.9% 11% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$12 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions41
Markets (closed)88 / 129
History coverage114d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Yes $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Yes 16¢ $1 $6 +$6 (+1121%)
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? Yes $1 $3 +$2 (+179%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 14¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 20¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? No $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? No $1 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 12 $1 −$1 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +164%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$2 -69%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7) Jun 05 $2 $0 -23%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 05 $13 −$7 -53%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? Jun 03 $47 +$4 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $288 +$55 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $259 +$458 +177%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $2 $0 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25 +$8 +33%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $52 −$31 -60%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $1 −$1 -55%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $486 −$30 -6%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? May 29 $2 +$4 +200%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -58%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 −$1 -17%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $7 −$7 -94%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? May 26 $6 −$1 -17%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +34%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 25 $13 −$10 -78%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 20 $1 $0 -48%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 20 $11 +$5 +49%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $5 −$2 -34%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 20 $4 −$3 -68%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 18 $24 +$49 +206%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $24 −$23 -95%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 07 $4 +$2 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 47m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1 47m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 3h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 5h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 5h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY Yes $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No $1 6h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY Yes $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes $1 2d
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? BUY No $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No $1 3d
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? BUY No $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.26 · official $47.22 (match) · 398 history records