Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe703…db36 crypto 159 markets active 2d ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$126 (-8%) realized −$122 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate55%86W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$71
14 days−$72
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$83
other 3% −$41
economics 1% −$19
finance 1% −$10
world 0% −$7
politics 0% −$5
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -17.5% -25.3% 56% 32% -16.8%
≤30d 154 -18.8% -26.5% 56% 35% -17.1%
≤90d 155 -19.3% -27.0% 55% 35% -17.6%
all 157 -20.3% -27.9% 55% 34% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 34% -18.9%
10% -34.8% 27% -26.6%
15% -41.1% 19% -33.7%
20% -46.9% 13% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses86 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage188d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 58¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 19¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$32 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$19 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$13 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$55 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 89¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $1.77 (match) · 377 history records