Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E7 0xe702…1c29 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$231 (+23%) realized +$231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$191
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.2% -7.6% 67% 67% +12.4%
≤30d 6 +2.2% -7.6% 67% 67% +12.4%
≤90d 6 +2.2% -7.6% 67% 67% +12.4%
all 6 +2.2% -7.6% 67% 67% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 67% +12.4%
10% -16.4% 67% +1.7%
15% -24.5% 67% -8.2%
20% -31.9% 33% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$66 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $353 +$153 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$57 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $33 50m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $169 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 40¢ $102 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY 62¢ $101 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $505 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $147 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $150 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $159 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $100.00 · 14 history records