Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe700…24e4 crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-10%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -28.1% -34.9% 37% 37% -1.4%
≤30d 19 -28.1% -34.9% 37% 37% -1.4%
≤90d 19 -28.1% -34.9% 37% 37% -1.4%
all 19 -28.1% -34.9% 37% 37% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 37% -1.4%
10% -41.2% 37% -10.8%
15% -46.8% 37% -19.4%
20% -52.1% 37% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$19 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records