Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E7 0xe700…7005 crypto 81 markets active 6h ago coverage 578d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$50,785 (+26%) realized +$53,116 · open −$2,331
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%38W / 36L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$2,454per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$6,842now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,685
7 days−$1,685
14 days−$2,701
30 days+$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$79,531
world 20% −$26,293
other 4% +$873
sports 4% −$937
politics 1% −$2,400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -40.1% -45.8% 33% 17% -1.8%
≤90d 10 +27.8% +15.6% 50% 40% +34.7%
all 74 +68.3% +52.3% 51% 50% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.3% 50% +15.8%
10% ← realistic here +37.7% 47% +4.8%
15% +24.4% 46% -5.4%
20% +12.2% 46% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$3,200) neutral
Persistence
early +53% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
23.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,012 vs −$2,759 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$6,842
Realized+$53,116
Unrealized−$2,331
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses38 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions7
Markets (closed)74 / 81
History coverage578d
Avg bet$2,454
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 42¢ $1,800 $4,150 +$2,350 (+131%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 45¢ 70¢ $675 $1,058 +$382 (+57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $530 $535 +$5 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $403 $477 +$74 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $435 $288 −$147 (-34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $330 $172 −$158 (-48%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Yes 20¢ $5,000 $162 −$4,837 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $824 −$805 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $895 −$880 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,010 −$990 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2,061 +$3,092 +150%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 23 $1,598 +$153 +10%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $265 −$42 -16%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $240 +$342 +142%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $340 +$520 +153%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 19 $1,085 +$2,652 +244%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Feb 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 05 $5,140 +$4,840 +94%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $4,877 +$699 +14%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $702 −$702 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 25 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Jan 25 $3,881 −$3,881 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 20 $2,887 +$2,887 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11? Jan 07 $750 +$1,710 +228%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 6? Jan 05 $650 −$650 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31? Dec 20 $7,700 −$7,700 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Nov 14 $1,600 +$6,900 +431%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 8? Nov 08 $930 +$120 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November? Nov 05 $2,500 +$4,182 +167%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 04 $1,000 +$6,499 +650%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30? Nov 04 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Nov 03 $9,938 −$9,938 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $3,200 +$2,800 +88%
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 05 $1,000 +$2,799 +280%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 28 $5,011 +$8,489 +169%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31? Aug 08 $37 +$78 +212%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? Aug 08 $71 +$948 +1329%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 30 $9,660 −$9,660 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 18? Jul 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $160 on June 13? Jul 14 $2,147 +$3,491 +163%
Will Salzburg win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $150 on July 4? Jul 14 $5,757 +$3,710 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jul 14 $7,333 −$7,333 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in July? Jul 14 $9,800 −$9,800 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 10 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Ethereum above $2,500 on June 20? Jun 20 $950 +$1,375 +145%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 20? Jun 17 $1,330 +$1,330 +100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jun 17 $1,650 +$2,225 +135%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,700 +$3,800 +141%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 14 $1,850 +$1,900 +103%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 13? Jun 13 $999 +$2,182 +218%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 13? Jun 12 $800 +$1,250 +156%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 04 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $675 6h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $824 10h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $895 10h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 14¢ $11 7d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 14¢ $16 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $414 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $447 10d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 33¢ $1,010 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $545 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $340 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,188 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,200 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,621 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,145 16d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,752 29d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $164 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $1 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $52 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $156 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $16 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $50 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $5 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $100 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $130 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $97 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $4 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $7 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $2 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,841.90 · official $6,841.90 (match) · 2506 history records