Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E7 0xe700…04fa crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$7 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate67%34W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$62
other 31% +$60
politics 9% −$18
world 7% $0
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.8% -35.6% 43% 43% +6.3%
≤30d 7 -28.8% -35.6% 43% 43% +6.3%
≤90d 9 -21.1% -28.6% 44% 44% +5.3%
all 51 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 29% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 29% -10.9%
10% -25.3% 20% -19.4%
15% -32.5% 12% -27.2%
20% -39.1% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses34 / 17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)51 / 60
History coverage105d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $83 $91 +$8 (+9%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 66¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $58 $60 +$3 (+5%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 57¢ 55¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? No 93¢ 90¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes 28¢ 13¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-54%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by June 30, 2027? No 91¢ 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $53 +$27 +52%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $75 +$29 +38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +29%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? Jun 12 $37 −$8 -21%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 03 $10 +$2 +19%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5AM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 10 $40 −$34 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11AM ET Mar 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 10 $2 $0 -7%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 10 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 10 $10 +$11 +105%
Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popu Mar 10 $120 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10AM ET Mar 06 $20 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 06 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 06 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 06 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9AM ET Mar 06 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 06 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 06 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 06 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 06 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 06 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 06 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 06 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 06 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 06 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 06 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6AM ET Mar 06 $84 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4AM ET Mar 06 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3AM ET Mar 06 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 06 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 06 $85 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 06 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 05 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 05 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 05 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 05 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 05 $6 +$4 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $57 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $51 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY No 93¢ $25 1h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 71¢ $3 4d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 61¢ $5 4d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 79¢ $6 4d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 62¢ $12 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $18 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 97¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $5 4d
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by June 30, 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 73¢ $5 4d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 76¢ $10 5d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $13 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 21¢ $5 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 40¢ $5 11d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 67¢ $25 11d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 70¢ $40 14d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $58 14d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $39 14d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $7 44d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 60¢ $5 44d
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 70d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 70d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? BUY No 41¢ $5 73d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 77¢ $10 73d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? SELL No 41¢ $29 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.23 · official $313.23 (match) · 254 history records