Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6ff…e0ff other 133 markets active 4h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$16
other 26% −$18
sports 21% −$15
crypto 6% −$6
world 5% −$1
culture 5% −$2
tech 3% −$3
finance 2% −$3
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.4% -10.8% 4% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 62 -1.0% -10.5% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 119 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 132 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage100d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $99 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $53 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $340 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $60 −$6 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $115 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $52 −$3 -6%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $133 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $47 $0 -1%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 −$2 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $62 −$2 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $114 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $176 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $169 −$2 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $108 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $186 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 03 $25 −$2 -9%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $129 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 02 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $162 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $82 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $41 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $241 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $42 4h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 4h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 11h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $47 12h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $46 20h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 21h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 28h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $50 28h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $51 32h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $62 33h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $12 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $50 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 46h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $65 46h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $65 2d
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 84¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $60 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.25 · official $42.25 (match) · 487 history records