Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe6fd…b2d8 crypto 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,670 (-5%) realized −$1,671 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate56%162W / 129L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$267
14 days+$267
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$2,104
other 13% +$481
sports 4% −$79
world 0% −$17
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +23.8% +12.0% 67% 56% +49.5%
≤30d 9 +23.8% +12.0% 67% 56% +49.5%
≤90d 12 +14.9% +3.9% 58% 50% +48.6%
all 291 -10.9% -19.4% 56% 29% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 29% -13.8%
10% -27.1% 23% -22.1%
15% -34.2% 15% -29.6%
20% -40.6% 12% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$30 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1,671
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses162 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)291 / 294
History coverage173d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$50 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 +$34 +56%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $194 +$96 +50%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 12 $14 +$23 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 08 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 08 $50 −$43 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 08 $30 +$52 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 08 $50 +$54 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 08 $20 +$37 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $30 +$47 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 06 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO? Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 03 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 02 $1,097 +$11 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 02 $116 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 02 $1,083 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 02 $1,069 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 02 $1,048 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 02 $1,037 +$10 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 02 $1,024 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 02 $1,018 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 02 $1,007 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 02 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 02 $40 +$10 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $10 +$22 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 02 $100 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: FOLHA AMARELA vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 02 $200 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 02 $110 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 02 $1,013 +$55 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 02 $1,004 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 21¢ $10 59m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $56 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 20¢ $20 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $95 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $290 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $194 2d
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $10 63d
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 63d
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $14 63d
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 63d
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 63d
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $12 63d
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $14 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $19 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $7 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $50 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $100 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.08 · official $14.08 (match) · 847 history records