Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6fd…8bc3 world 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 363d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 363d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,610 (-5%) realized −$1,445 · open −$5,165
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%283W / 172L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3,740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$2,983
14 days−$3,044
30 days+$1,720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$6,266
other 16% +$866
politics 6% −$868
finance 5% +$1,308
sports 2% −$929
tech 1% −$235
economics 0% −$24
culture 0% −$148
crypto 0% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.7% -13.8% 75% 25% -49.5%
≤30d 48 +14.6% +3.7% 85% 54% -4.6%
≤90d 157 -0.9% -10.3% 69% 50% -7.5%
all 455 -0.2% -9.7% 62% 46% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 46% -10.4%
10% -18.3% 30% -18.9%
15% -26.2% 20% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 13% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$142 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

363d coverage
Net worth$3,740
Realized−$1,445
Unrealized−$5,165
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses283 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions31
Markets (closed)455 / 486
History coverage363d ⚠
Avg bet$279
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 70¢ 55¢ $1,239 $975 −$264 (-21%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? No 77¢ 78¢ $411 $419 +$8 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $307 $319 +$12 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 63¢ 65¢ $186 $193 +$7 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $198 $189 −$9 (-4%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? No 37¢ 36¢ $185 $180 −$5 (-3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 69¢ $157 $151 −$5 (-3%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 52¢ 50¢ $154 $150 −$4 (-3%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 46¢ $142 $147 +$5 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 44¢ 20¢ $318 $140 −$179 (-56%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $121 $112 −$9 (-7%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 49¢ 32¢ $152 $99 −$53 (-35%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 36¢ 35¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Blue wave in 2026? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $78 $85 +$7 (+9%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 62¢ $64 $81 +$18 (+28%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 40¢ 46¢ $69 $79 +$10 (+14%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $58 $61 +$2 (+4%)
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 74¢ $59 $55 −$4 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 18¢ $80 $38 −$42 (-52%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 44¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ $912 $24 −$888 (-97%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ $2,440 $21 −$2,419 (-99%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 66¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $107 +$7 +6%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 14 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 14 $136 +$3 +2%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $420 +$35 +8%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 13 $1,814 +$175 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $396 +$144 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $3,202 −$2,301 -72%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $1,090 −$1,090 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $190 −$14 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 10 $25 +$11 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $804 +$45 +6%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $81 +$19 +23%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $122 +$28 +23%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 03 $110 −$109 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $396 +$144 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $1,876 +$471 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $522 +$115 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $468 +$72 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $252 +$90 +36%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $4,326 +$158 +4%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 30 $224 +$158 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5,423 +$1,584 +29%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 28 $217 +$13 +6%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? May 28 $116 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $400 +$25 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,978 +$819 +41%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 26 $288 −$135 -47%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 26 $365 +$232 +64%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $361 −$36 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $235 +$50 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 25 $114 +$27 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $615 +$135 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $177 +$20 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $327 +$82 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? May 23 $349 +$11 +3%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $195 +$32 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $171 +$34 +20%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $427 +$98 +23%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? May 22 $586 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? May 21 $244 +$13 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $105 +$22 +20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 20 $320 +$36 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $431 +$40 +9%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $533 +$2 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? May 20 $351 +$40 +12%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? May 18 $92 +$260 +283%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $2,032 +$152 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 17 $590 +$221 +37%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $90 +$67 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $44 1h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $21 12h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 12h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 12h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $7 12h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $5 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $6 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $260 47h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 61¢ $59 47h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $52 47h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $79 47h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $58 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $200 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $304 2d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $253 2d
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $187 2d
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? SELL No 88¢ $80 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $360 2d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $16 2d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $37 2d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $50 2d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $230 2d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $482 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1,247 3d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 65¢ $1,097 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $540 3d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $36 3d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,740.18 · official $3,770.43 (match) · 3500 history records