Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E6 0xe6f5…a4bf crypto 1217 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+1%) realized +$61 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%636W / 573L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$43
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$26
other 5% +$85
economics 3% +$10
sports 2% +$8
world 1% +$8
tech 0% −$6
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 38% -1.9%
≤90d 56 -10.7% -19.2% 46% 38% -8.0%
all 1209 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 44% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 44% -8.9%
10% -19.7% 25% -17.6%
15% -27.5% 14% -25.6%
20% -34.6% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses636 / 573
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1209 / 1217
History coverage232d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 66¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 244 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $66 +$39 +58%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $91 +$5 +6%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $42 +$11 +25%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $26 −$26 -99%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 22 $55 −$5 -9%
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $67 +$8 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 14 $58 −$23 -40%
Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $153 +$24 +16%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 03 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $30 −$4 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 27 $11 +$1 +8%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 25 $44 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Apr 21 $182 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 13 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026? Apr 11 $111 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 09 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$2 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 59¢ $15 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 75¢ $75 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 9d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 11d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 16d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 16d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 18d
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 20d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 20d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions SELL Shanghai Sharks 21¢ $1 21d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 62¢ $2 21d
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $34 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 23d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 29¢ $29 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $18 27d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 27d
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $42 28d
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.10 · official $174.10 (match) · 3237 history records