Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6f1…dfee crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$230 (-2%) realized −$241 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%53W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$12
crypto 15% −$212
other 7% −$40
sports 2% +$16
economics 2% +$6
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -25.8% -32.9% 27% 27% -9.1%
≤30d 15 -30.4% -37.1% 20% 20% -15.7%
≤90d 80 -24.4% -31.6% 31% 30% -16.2%
all 165 -24.7% -31.8% 32% 28% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 28% -11.6%
10% -38.4% 24% -20.1%
15% -44.3% 21% -27.8%
20% -49.8% 16% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses53 / 112
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage585d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 66¢ $31 $42 +$11 (+36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $72 −$4 -5%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $8 +$5 +62%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -61%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$16 -62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$43 +143%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 +$3 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $18 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $17 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 15 $2 +$3 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 15 $3 +$5 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 08 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 08 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 02 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 02 $9 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1AM ET Apr 02 $12 −$11 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $18 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 02 $7 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 02 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 02 $3 +$8 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 02 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 31 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $19 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11PM ET Mar 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 23 $22 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 23 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 23 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 23 $54 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 23 $17 +$15 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $31 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 19h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 33h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $16 41h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 41h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $73 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $30 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $16 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $13 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $13 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $14 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.92 · official $41.92 (match) · 504 history records