Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6f1…4e0b world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$3
other 17% $0
politics 6% −$1
weather 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 17 -1.8% -11.1% 41% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 17 -1.8% -11.1% 41% 6% -10.0%
all 49 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 6% -10.0%
10% -22.0% 4% -18.6%
15% -29.5% 4% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage481d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $73 +$1 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $36 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $8 −$3 -37%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $42 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $100 −$6 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $31 +$5 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the Jul 17 $0 $0 -50%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $7 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 29 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $17 −$10 -59%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Mar 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 23 $19 $0 -1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $8 +$8 +105%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 21 $14 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $23 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $14 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $17 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $16 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $6 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $27 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $36 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 97¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $21 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $0 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $22 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records