Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6f0…8071 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38 (+8%) realized +$37 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$17
other 20% +$30
crypto 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.9% -17.6% 54% 38% +3.4%
≤30d 24 -8.9% -17.6% 54% 38% +3.4%
≤90d 24 -8.9% -17.6% 54% 38% +3.4%
all 24 -8.9% -17.6% 54% 38% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 38% +3.4%
10% -25.5% 29% -6.5%
15% -32.7% 25% -15.5%
20% -39.3% 12% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 53¢ 52¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 71¢ 78¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 30 $10 −$6 -65%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 30 $42 +$11 +27%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 30 $5 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $2 $0 +15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $60 +$47 +78%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $41 +$19 +47%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $4 $0 +0%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $37 +$19 +51%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $36 −$24 -67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$2 -55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -65%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 −$1 -40%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $17 −$1 -5%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 $0 +3%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $21 +$4 +21%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $4 +$2 +67%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3 $0 +8%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $22 +$2 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -69%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 72¢ $7 9m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands $3 12m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 70¢ $14 13m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 71¢ $27 35m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $26 43m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $36 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 50¢ $37 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $6 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $0 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $0 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $5 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 19¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 86¢ $2 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 50¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 28h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 52¢ $3 28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 28h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 53¢ $101 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 45h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $60 46h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $13 47h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $28 47h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 37¢ $4 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.76 · official $71.76 (match) · 72 history records