Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E6 0xe6f0…a7a4 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$99 (+15%) realized +$28 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$95
politics 17% +$17
world 15% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +32.3% +19.7% 100% 67% +24.0%
≤30d 4 +17.7% +6.5% 75% 50% +9.9%
≤90d 4 +17.7% +6.5% 75% 50% +9.9%
all 4 +17.7% +6.5% 75% 50% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 50% +9.9%
10% -3.7% 25% -0.6%
15% -13.0% 25% -10.2%
20% -21.5% 25% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.37 per $1 lost it wins $4.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage28d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+70%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 55¢ $60 $82 +$22 (+36%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+11%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $46 $57 +$11 (+24%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $51 $47 −$4 (-9%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $65 +$7 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 20 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $74 +$62 +83%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 08 $62 −$16 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.09 · official $388.15 (match) · 44 history records