Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe6ee…b3aa sports 404 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 211d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,891 (+1%) realized +$4,914 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%192W / 209L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$1,211per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 212d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$14,574
other 7% −$4,192
tech 0% −$1,880
world 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -19.4% -27.1% 39% 39% -27.5%
≤30d 38 -19.4% -27.1% 39% 39% -27.5%
≤90d 89 -56.6% -60.8% 21% 21% -68.5%
all 401 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 47% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 47% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 46% -17.7%
15% -23.9% 45% -25.6%
20% -31.3% 45% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,440) neutral
Persistence
early +30% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,147 vs −$1,013 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$4,914
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses192 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions3
Markets (closed)401 / 404
History coverage212d ⚠
Avg bet$1,211
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 56¢ $96 $111 +$15 (+16%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 58¢ 57¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $73 $36 −$37 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $877 −$198 -23%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,027 +$973 +95%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $560 +$440 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 21 $193 −$193 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $262 −$262 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $365 −$365 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $458 −$458 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $368 −$368 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $350 −$350 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $437 −$437 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $557 −$557 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $524 −$524 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $710 −$710 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $533 −$533 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $947 −$947 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $980 −$980 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $980 −$980 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,073 −$1,073 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $530 +$470 +89%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $1,211 +$1,099 +91%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $84 +$116 +138%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $460 +$540 +117%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2,060 +$1,940 +94%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $104 +$96 +92%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $460 +$540 +117%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $860 +$1,140 +133%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1,040 +$960 +92%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $94 +$90 +96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $372 +$238 +64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $127 +$73 +58%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 +$53 +129%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $52 −$52 -100%
SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $47 −$47 -100%
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-16.5) Apr 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 Apr 01 $27 +$23 +85%
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Apr 01 $26 +$24 +89%
Granada CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5 Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-01-11? Mar 30 $13 −$13 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Mar 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Mar 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $2 0m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $78 0m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $22 0m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $47 1m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $33 2m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $10 2m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $1 2m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $5 2m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $13 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $293 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $27 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $136 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $46 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $54 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $58 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $26 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $29 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $72 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $19 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $59 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $9 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $230 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.69 · official $246.75 (match) · 3500 history records