Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6e9…5ca1 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$19
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 25% −$22
culture 8% −$9
politics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$5
world 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage136d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $207 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $512 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $461 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $721 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $165 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $514 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $368 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $496 +$1 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $467 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $505 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $160 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $141 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $172 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $145 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $139 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $341 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $290 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $310 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 54m
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $62 4h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $62 6h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 7h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 9h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 10h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 12h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 13h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 15h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 16h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 18h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $63 19h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $63 20h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 28h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 29h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 31h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 32h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 34h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 36h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $63 37h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 39h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 40h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 42h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 43h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 44h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $64 46h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $64 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1378 history records