Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6e8…b07d world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$9
other 19% $0
politics 10% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% +$2
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 7% -12.1%
≤90d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 7% -12.1%
all 33 -3.1% -12.4% 36% 3% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 3% -11.3%
10% -20.7% 3% -19.8%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage461d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $16 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $36 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $57 −$3 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $9 −$5 -54%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $7 +$2 +29%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 -4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iranian nuclear facility in March? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 37h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $36 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $36 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.12 · official $36.12 (match) · 99 history records