Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe6e7…8c77 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$616 (-13%) realized −$616 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$1,461
30 days−$1,408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$337
politics 32% −$623
weather 10% −$344
other 2% −$99
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 10 -26.4% -33.4% 50% 20% -51.0%
≤90d 17 -13.0% -21.3% 47% 29% -24.6%
all 19 -9.7% -18.3% 53% 32% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 32% -23.5%
10% -26.2% 32% -30.9%
15% -33.3% 26% -37.5%
20% -39.8% 26% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$195 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$616
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage150d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 05 $351 −$350 -100%
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? Jun 05 $560 −$531 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $700 −$107 -15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $484 −$479 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $51 +$28 +55%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $177 +$14 +8%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $551 +$24 +4%
Will Sonny Styles be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draf Apr 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Jordyn Tyson be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draf Apr 24 $25 −$24 -98%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $502 −$136 -27%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $250 +$188 +75%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $200 +$432 +216%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $353 +$280 +79%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jan 27 $226 +$15 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 98¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 92¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 93¢ $351 10d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? SELL Yes $29 11d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 22¢ $469 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $484 12d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 64¢ $51 26d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $51 26d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY PlayTime 57¢ $51 26d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 66¢ $25 26d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 60¢ $135 26d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 61¢ $152 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 96¢ $551 26d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 42d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 43d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 43d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 43d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $195 44d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 44d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 44d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 44d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 44d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 44d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 31¢ $23 46d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 46d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 40¢ $10 46d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 38¢ $91 46d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $181 49d
Will Sonny Styles be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draf BUY Yes 37¢ $25 53d
Will Jordyn Tyson be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draf BUY Yes 22¢ $25 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records