Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E6 0xe6e6…ebf2 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$660 (+22%) realized +$663 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$273
14 days+$264
30 days+$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$473
sports 4% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +19.6% +8.2% 57% 43% +37.0%
≤30d 33 +21.2% +9.6% 55% 42% +11.7%
≤90d 54 +26.2% +14.2% 50% 41% +11.5%
all 54 +26.2% +14.2% 50% 41% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 41% +11.5%
10% +3.3% 37% +0.8%
15% -6.7% 33% -8.9%
20% -15.9% 33% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$13 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$663
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage89d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $160 +$136 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $150 +$10 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$29 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $87 +$146 +167%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $68 −$21 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $193 +$169 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $488 −$153 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $52 +$36 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $386 −$9 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $115 −$40 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $119 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $16 +$14 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $138 +$38 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $158 +$11 +7%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $51 +$44 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $144 +$45 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $93 −$10 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $31 +$78 +251%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $3 +$3 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $15 +$9 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $9 +$16 +179%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? May 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? May 15 $4 −$2 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 15 $4 −$3 -73%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in May 2026? May 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in May 2026? May 14 $2 +$3 +157%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? May 11 $4 +$14 +315%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $2 +$1 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $3 +$6 +221%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $7 +$5 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $14 −$13 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? May 02 $23 −$10 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Apr 30 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 27 $5 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 27 $17 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $205 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $47 42h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $52 47h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 47h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $72 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $55 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $47 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $41 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $42 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $234 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $36 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $31 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $19 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $60 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $24 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.99 · official $106.99 (match) · 198 history records