Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6e6…79b5 sports 1230 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,365 (-6%) realized −$5,411 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate76%931W / 295L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 148d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,547
crypto 28% −$881
other 9% −$310
finance 2% +$139
tech 1% +$137
world 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +6.2% -3.9% 86% 69% -7.7%
≤30d 177 -0.5% -9.9% 78% 65% -11.6%
≤90d 676 -1.0% -10.4% 77% 68% -10.2%
all 1226 -2.0% -11.3% 76% 65% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 65% -11.9%
10% -19.8% 35% -20.4%
15% -27.6% 15% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$62 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized−$5,411
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses931 / 295
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1226 / 1230
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Yes 64¢ 90¢ $96 $134 +$38 (+40%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? Down 93¢ 100¢ $93 $100 +$7 (+7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Down 93¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 23? Jun 23 $94 −$74 -79%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $89 +$12 +13%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $143 +$4 +3%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $45 −$25 -56%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $91 +$9 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $41 +$9 +22%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 22? Jun 22 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $39 +$11 +28%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$11 +12%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 21? Jun 21 $42 +$8 +19%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $88 +$13 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$9 +21%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 19 $23 +$28 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $38 +$12 +32%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $39 +$11 +28%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Jun 19 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $82 −$72 -88%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $47 +$6 +14%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $35 +$22 +61%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $57 +$5 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $86 +$14 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $75 +$13 +18%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 18? Jun 18 $85 −$81 -95%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$18 +78%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$11 +28%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$25 +48%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $43 +$7 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $40 −$25 -62%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $84 +$16 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$14 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 93¢ $7 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 93¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 23? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $70 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 64¢ $41 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 64¢ $55 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 93¢ $93 9h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $89 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $143 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 40¢ $20 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $45 14h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 96¢ $13 14h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 96¢ $40 14h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 96¢ $18 14h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 96¢ $24 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 88¢ $44 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $45 23h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $75 23h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 34h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $88 37h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 22? BUY Yes 94¢ $56 42h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 22? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 42h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 22? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 42h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G BUY AG Super Play 90¢ $19 2d
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G BUY AG Super Play 90¢ $27 2d
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G BUY AG Super Play 90¢ $44 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $90 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $88 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.12 · official $325.12 (match) · 3500 history records