Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E6 0xe6e3…0cd6 crypto 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$290 (-8%) realized −$279 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%103W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$114
14 days+$161
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$206
sports 6% +$122
other 6% +$50
world 5% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +30.8% +18.4% 33% 33% +33.5%
≤30d 70 +33.8% +21.1% 40% 40% +38.4%
≤90d 70 +33.8% +21.1% 40% 40% +38.4%
all 230 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 43% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 43% -13.9%
10% -16.7% 43% -22.1%
15% -24.7% 38% -29.6%
20% -32.1% 33% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$279
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses103 / 127
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)230 / 246
History coverage167d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-69%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 29 $3 +$38 +1231%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $3 +$2 +53%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$11 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $3 +$24 +784%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Brazil? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +15%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 +$11 +216%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 25 $3 +$16 +510%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$17 +86%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 24 $5 +$32 +632%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea Jun 23 $5 +$24 +472%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 202 Jun 23 $8 +$6 +80%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $3 +$8 +246%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -53%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $12 +$8 +64%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -42%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$4 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $41 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $5 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance AND Br BUY 30¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $3 37h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $5 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 37h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 37h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.69 · official $5.19 · 616 history records