Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe6da…2a10 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$154 (+5%) realized +$171 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate67%56W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$40
14 days+$139
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$134
sports 29% −$30
crypto 2% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +3.8% -6.1% 69% 67% -7.3%
≤30d 84 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 64% -3.7%
≤90d 84 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 64% -3.7%
all 84 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 64% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 64% -3.7%
10% -17.0% 52% -12.9%
15% -25.1% 33% -21.4%
20% -32.4% 23% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$18 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$860
Realized+$171
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses56 / 28
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions20
Markets (closed)84 / 113
History coverage9d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $360 $342 −$18 (-5%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 82¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+7%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+15%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $32 −$8 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 48¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $19 −$11 (-38%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 48¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $195 +$10 +5%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$28 +56%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$4 +21%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $59 +$62 +105%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 +$8 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$18 +44%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 +$3 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$11 +57%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$13 +42%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +27%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +24%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$7 +23%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $30 +$10 +34%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $70 +$12 +17%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$19 -64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $143 +$60 +42%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$13 +124%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$6 +32%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $4 +$4 +82%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $40 +$14 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 79¢ $101 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 79¢ $20 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 78¢ $30 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No $10 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $37 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No $21 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 92¢ $156 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 56¢ $71 8h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 43h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 47¢ $25 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 47h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $59 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $10 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY 63¢ $10 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $20 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8. BUY 13¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $8 3d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND England vs. Ghan BUY 57¢ $25 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $20 3d
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 4d
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $859.71 · official $859.71 (match) · 203 history records