Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6da…0aa9 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-11%) realized −$48 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-75.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -73.3% -75.8% 0% 0% -54.6%
≤30d 3 -73.3% -75.8% 0% 0% -54.6%
≤90d 3 -73.3% -75.8% 0% 0% -54.6%
all 3 -73.3% -75.8% 0% 0% -54.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.8% 0% -54.6%
10% -78.1% 0% -59.0%
15% -80.2% 0% -62.9%
20% -82.2% 0% -66.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$20 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$482
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $122 $124 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $67 $73 +$6 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $72 $61 −$11 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $72 $54 −$18 (-25%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 −$41 -94%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $77 −$15 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $71 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $59 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $44 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $71 22h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $62 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $71 25h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $77 25h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $76 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $71 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $77 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.62 · official $481.62 (match) · 15 history records