Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E6 0xe6d6…58f0 other 604 markets active 4h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$955 (+19%) realized +$1,186 · open −$231
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate72%379W / 149L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$153
politics 21% +$189
world 13% +$130
tech 8% +$120
sports 7% −$24
economics 7% +$50
culture 4% +$9
crypto 1% +$23
finance 1% −$6
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 71% -8.0%
≤30d 93 +2.8% -6.9% 70% 70% -2.3%
≤90d 419 +13.3% +2.5% 70% 67% +4.1%
all 528 +20.2% +8.8% 72% 68% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 68% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.6% 65% -1.7%
15% -11.1% 48% -11.2%
20% -19.9% 23% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$1,186
Unrealized−$231
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses379 / 149
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions80
Markets (closed)528 / 604
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+27%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-72%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-54%)
Will John Stanton buy the Seattle Seahawks? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+140%)
China coup attempt before 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $8 +$6 +80%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +40%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +29%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$4 +39%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $15 +$6 +39%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 09 $9 +$3 +30%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 08 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 07 $8 +$4 +45%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 06 $6 +$3 +46%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Jun 06 $11 +$5 +45%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +38%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in May? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in May 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto Jun 05 $8 −$6 -76%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 05 $48 −$5 -10%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 04 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 3h
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11h
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 13h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 14h
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 36h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 36h
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 36h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 36h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? SELL No 30¢ $6 44h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.18 · official $199.20 (match) · 3500 history records