Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe6d5…435f crypto 816 markets active 1d ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-4%) realized −$235 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%303W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$28
14 days−$76
30 days−$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$411
other 3% −$81
sports 2% +$2
tech 1% −$72
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -27.7% -34.6% 39% 29% -26.4%
≤30d 808 -8.6% -17.3% 37% 30% -19.0%
≤90d 814 -9.0% -17.7% 37% 30% -19.3%
all 814 -9.0% -17.7% 37% 30% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 30% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 23% -27.0%
15% -32.7% 16% -34.1%
20% -39.3% 12% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$235
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses303 / 511
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)814 / 816
History coverage34d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 814 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 316 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.34 · official $12.34 (match) · 2109 history records